Study of hydrogen cyanide dispersion using Monte Carlo simulation. Safety distances Estimation

Abstract

The estimation of safety distances for the different accidental events poses important challenges mainly due to the high number of stochastic variables involved in the phenomena. In this work, a methodology is presented, which was implemented through the development of a software for the determination of safety distances considering different levels of affectation in case of a possible dispersion of hydrogen cyanide, a toxic light gas. The toxic dispersion modeling is carried out using the Gaussian model and the stochastic variables are approached using the Monte Carlo method. Through a statistical analysis, the points where concentrations below the thresholds (AEGL) occur in 90% of the evaluated scenarios are defined. Finally, the affected areas are presented considering different leaked flows of Hydrogen Cyanide (CNH) in the surroundings of the Rosario city.